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Having scored nine times in his initial seven league matches, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has started the season on fire.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his opening seven appearances in 2022-23 and ten in the previous campaign - it nonetheless positions him three strikes clear in the initial race for this campaign's English top-flight Golden Boot.

The fact that none of his nine goals have been from the penalty spot makes it even more impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Certainly, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the honor so quickly into the term.

First, the number of goals he has already scored - and, of similar importance, the total and standard of scoring opportunities he's creating.

Furthermore, the sluggish beginning his regular challengers for the honor have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) represents how many goals a Premier League player has historically scored from the number and quality of chances he has had.

This isn't a statistic haphazardly selected by statistics boffins, but by historical Premier League data.

Upon reviewing at attackers' xG statistics in the Premier League so far this season from open play, the Norwegian striker is obtaining considerably more excellent scoring situations to find the net than every other footballer.

Indeed, even if Haaland wasn't superior at converting opportunities than any other player in the competition, he would nevertheless have converted significantly more goals as the remainder of the league.

Scoring Situation Assessment

This is illustrated by analyzing the total and standard of chances that attackers have encountered in the top flight so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this season, a dozen more than any other player.

That is actually not especially surprising for him - he had previously registered more non-penalty shots at this stage in the previous two campaigns (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).

However, what's exceptional even for Haaland is the quality of chances he has had this campaign. His shots have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that footballers have traditionally scored the shots he has had at a 27% success ratio.

Of players to take at ten or more efforts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to net per shot - thanks to a couple of tap-ins against West Ham United and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of an average of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 expected goals per attempt he had at the start of last season.

Essentially, the chances he has had in the current season have been significantly more straightforward to score from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the beginning of last season.

Historical Comparison

Opening a term so powerfully is, as previously stated, not unusual for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last campaign he had netted ten times - four more than any other player and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Liverpool forward who won the Golden Boot with 29 goals, a touchdown more than the City forward.

During the current term, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Indeed this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has begun modestly either. Upon reviewing at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the other 10 players put together so far.

Be it because of physical problems - several key attackers - extended transfer dramas in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their clubs have faced difficulties (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's potential challengers in the battle for the scoring title have underperformed so far.

European Top Scorer Competition

Even as Haaland seems the clear favourite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European top scorer prize that is given to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's premier competitions?

That contest is significantly tighter at this opening period because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in excellent condition, with 11 and 9 conversions correspondingly.

The fact Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the greatest expected goals of the trio despite not attempting any spot-kicks makes him the frontrunner.

But since the English and French stars are some of the most excellent converters in European football in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the competition remains open.